New 50 seat plan at United

Discussion in 'The Pipe' started by BrianS, Feb 6, 2019.

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  1. Feb 6, 2019 #1

    BrianS

    BrianS

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  2. Feb 6, 2019 #2

    littleagnes99

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    And Skywest will get 25 new 175s out of this deal.
     
  3. Feb 6, 2019 #3

    BrianS

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    The hardest job in the aviation industry is that of an ExpressJet pilot recruiter. Before this announcement it looked like United bought a share of ExpressJet to revamp how it handles it’s regionals. ExpressJet could sell that vision. Get in on the ground floor of United’s new regional airline model. We probably had some junior GoJet pilots thinking of applying to ExpressJet. Now, however, GoJet is getting a new fleet that will expand them into Newark flying. The 25 E175’s aren’t enough to recruit the 600 pilots ExpressJet claims they need to hire this year. I have friends at GoJet that I am genuinely happy for with this announcement. I don’t wish for bad news at any United Express carrier. I do wonder what United is thinking when they time these announcements. ExpressJet was in a position to recruit on the hope of something big with the ManaAir deal. This CRJ 550 announcement takes the wind out of the sails of the rumor that United will consolidate it’s regional feed. Maybe United has a good plan for ExpressJet, but that plan hasn’t been made public. This doesn’t give those poor ExpressJet pilot recruiters much to sell. Without pilots no plan will turn ExpressJet around. Today GoJet pilot recruiters have more to promote than ExpressJet recruiters. For ExpressJet there’s new ownership, but the same uncertainty.
     
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  4. Feb 7, 2019 #4

    The Red Baron

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    Nope. United is scoped out. Skywest only grows the 25 if the United pilots cave on scope.
     
  5. Feb 7, 2019 #5

    Zero-G

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    Which isn’t remotely close to happening. That flying needs to come back in house.
     
  6. Feb 7, 2019 #6

    Zero-G

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    Those 700s were done anyway. Instead of chopping them up, they have become the next big experiment.
     
  7. Feb 7, 2019 #7

    The Red Baron

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    I could be wrong, but the way I read this, these are factory new airframes. Not a reconfiguration of current (old) CRJ-700 airframes.
     
  8. Feb 7, 2019 #8

    Fozzie Bear

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    No it sounds like just a reconfigure to avoid scope to me "United will work with Bombardier to use the frame of its current CRJ 70-seat fleet". Which is why our 175's are 175 SC's NOT just 175's.
     
  9. Feb 7, 2019 #9

    ExBizJet

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    If the UAL Scope Clause is predicated on the number of 70+ seat jets that United Express operates. As certain E-175 United Express operators CPA's expire. If UAL chose not to renew their contracts and they were in possession of 175's that are owned by UAL. Would it be possible for us to get these jets and add them to our operation. Which in the long run could potentially make us an all 175 operation.

    Personally I see the CRJ as a short term solution to UAL's problems. The E-175 is so popular that there is a huge back order of jets at the factory. Now that Embraer is jointly owned by Boeing. I wouldn't be surprised that once Boeing helps Embraer solve their production problems. I can see larger numbers of 175's being pushed through the assembly line and CRJ's being retired. Remember the CRJ is a time cycle jet. Once it's timed out. It's thrown away.
     
  10. Feb 7, 2019 #10

    AquaFreshJet

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    Everybody cried for years about how we can’t get bigger, nicer jets, and now that we have 175s are we really going to keep crying over somebody else getting CRJ7s with lipstick on them? Seems like people won’t be happy unless XJT is the only UAL regional to ever be awarded flying. We can’t even staff the airplanes we’ve been awarded, so we’ll need to solve that problem before any more planes come our way.

    Also, seems like this feeds the definite plausibility of XJT becoming an all 70/76 seat airline in the future. C550s for G7 in Newark? Most would agree we’ll gladly trade that out for E175 lift out of there or somewhere else.
     
  11. Feb 7, 2019 #11

    Zero-G

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    Who’s crying? And,... RJs are done out of EWR. The plan is to make IAD the new feeder hub and EWR will be international hub. The 550 is just a stop-gap while 700s are replaced with 175s. This, and someone must have seen some untapped market in first class seating. It doesn’t take much to make this change to the cabin, so there’s not much money wasted if the gamble fails.

    ...and why would it help EMB by Boeing taking over. Neither one has had a miraculous record of on-time aircraft delivery. They are too wrapped around the axle with max and 78 deliveries as it is.
     
  12. Feb 7, 2019 #12

    BrianS

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    Actually, there is a way for scope to be relaxed without any changes to the existing scope language. If UAL orders small narrowbody aircraft the current scope allows for more 175’s.

    Nobody is crying about GoJet getting new planes. You said yourself the problem is we don’t have enough pilots. That’s the problem we need to solve, but not having a public plan isn’t going to attract pilots. GoJet now has a fleet plan that includes growth and a 10 year contract. ExpressJet is partly owned by United, which is good news, but there’s still no plan that’s been made public. The 145’s are getting old, and 25 175’s aren’t going to replace them. ExpressJet is lacking a public plan that has something concrete to offer new hire pilots.
     
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  13. Feb 8, 2019 #13

    BrianS

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  14. Feb 9, 2019 #14

    The Red Baron

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    I’m quite familiar with the UAL scope. Of course IF they ordered more SNB in order to expand the large RJ fleet, their 50 seat fleet would immediately be limited to a total of 125. For years UAL was reducing the 50 seat fleet (primarily our flying) towards the goal of 125 and expansion of large RJ’s with a SNB order. But for some reason, UAL did not want the E-190/195 or C-series as specified in their scope for a new SNB order. They tried many options such as the 737-700, but the pilots never caved.

    So instead, they doubled down on the 50 seat fleet under current scope. The Air Wiskey deal and our new CPA demonstrated the reversal in reducing the 50 seat fleet. With G7’s new order of 50 on a 10 year CPA, that would leave only 75 airframes to split between XJT, AW, TSA, and CommuteAir if UAL pursued the xpansion of large RJ’s under current scope. Be careful what you wish for...

    United under Kirby has reversed course and is actively expanding 50 seat flying. Not reducing towards the goal of 125 in order to expand large RJ’s with a SNB order. Under current scope UAL could fly nearly 500 50 seat RJ’s. And they are doing everything possible to realize that goal. They are going to make the UAL pilots negotiate all these 50:seaters away.

    The CRJ 550 order was a way for UAL to show their pilots that someone IS still building 50 seat jets. They are not just going to fade away with age and cycles. They will have to be negotiated away. Brilliant chess move on the part if UAL in the game of scope negotiations.
     
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  15. Feb 9, 2019 #15

    Zero-G

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    Not working on me..
     
  16. Feb 9, 2019 #16

    Challenger

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    Great business plan if you can staff it.
     
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  17. Feb 17, 2019 #17

    DanM

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    This is going to be the challenge for UAL... as long as the Mainline guys understand that it doesn't matter how many 50 seat jets UAL orders, it matters how many they can staff, this is a pointless move. The major hiring boom at Delta is just about to upswing, United and American are still hiring significant amounts, and all of UAL's RJ operators are at a massive disadvantage for hiring, in a pilot economy that is VERY weak... I am seeing more and more "2nd career" pilots come through my training department, who often require significant extra training, for a job that they will only be legal in for 4-5 years in many cases. This drastically reduces the ROI on 50 seat jets, as does the significant pay increases that have been required, in the form of signing bonuses and pay raises over the past few years. In the end, without a flow, we can't compete with other carriers for pilots, and regardless, we are going to get more expensive, as the pool dries further. It is finally a good time to be a regional pilot with aspirations.
     
  18. Feb 18, 2019 #18

    Challenger

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    We must be quite the bargain on wages and expenses in order to allow this many cancellations. Irony- is intense focus on 24 minute turns all the while cancelling flights due to staffing.
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2019
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