Don't get comfy yet.
This "shortage" will be used politically to get the Multi-crew Pilot license effective and !!boom!! "surplus scabs in waiting" and spiraling career expectations to go along with it. Keep fighting!!!
Question about Commercial Certificates. Is there anywhere you can look at the number issued in a given year. I was told only 800 were issued in 2010. About 35% of those were to foreign applicants. Just curious thats all. I know there are still thousands of pilots out there that hold a licence that arent using them. A FAA rep said that with everything that they are seeing he wishes he could be 25 again. So maybe the rumors of a pilot shortage just might be true.
While I was originally bummed that they would waive hours for accredited university credit, you make a good point that it won't be a "bang out a pilot zero to hero in 9 months" solution, much like the ridiculous AllATP flight school.
Take a look and in 2008 alone over 10,000 Commercial certificates were issued which was the highest of reported years since '02. CFI's average about 4,000+ a year. I'm calling shenanigans on the number of new Commercial pilots dropping to 400. There wasn't even that much of a dip after 9/11.
With hiring being stopped for a few years now there could be a backup of 20,000-30,000 commercially rated pilots out there. Clearly there would be CFI's logging that time. How many retirements would it take to drain that pool. I'm not saying there won't be staffing issues when the retirements hit but I doubt their won't be available pilots. The term "pilot shortage" exists only in the mind of Kit Darby.
well a freind of this girl i use to know had a bird tell her to talk to a hobo down the street and he came up with 406. Or i just randomlly pulled that number out of the air and wanted to see if people would run with it. But you werent biting were ya nova and dropped the shenanigans bomb on me. thx for ruining a perfectly good rumor. If you want to know all the real numbers just go to AOPA online. http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html there it is, 3452 commercial issued in 2010 representing a 47% decrease from 2009 and all the other numbers you would need. I will say this it def shows a downward trend.