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Thread: U.S. airlines brace for shortage of pilots

  1. #31

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    Tom is offline
    Don't get comfy yet.

    This "shortage" will be used politically to get the Multi-crew Pilot license effective and !!boom!! "surplus scabs in waiting" and spiraling career expectations to go along with it. Keep fighting!!!
    Ex-XJT'er
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    Good judgment comes from experience, and a lotta that comes from bad judgment.
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  2. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nova View Post
    I haven't heard that before. Did they come out with a preliminary tier system proposal? Either way, that sounds like something that would be implimented.
    No, it's just one of the ideas that I heard that the ARC considered. The NPRM was supposed to be published this month.
    "When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic." -- Ben Franklin



    protections for our pilots equivalent to those contained in our current agreement
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  3. #33

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    Question about Commercial Certificates. Is there anywhere you can look at the number issued in a given year. I was told only 800 were issued in 2010. About 35% of those were to foreign applicants. Just curious thats all. I know there are still thousands of pilots out there that hold a licence that arent using them. A FAA rep said that with everything that they are seeing he wishes he could be 25 again. So maybe the rumors of a pilot shortage just might be true.

  4. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by flybeaver View Post
    Question about Commercial Certificates. Is there anywhere you can look at the number issued in a given year. I was told only 800 were issued in 2010. About 35% of those were to foreign applicants. Just curious thats all. I know there are still thousands of pilots out there that hold a licence that arent using them. A FAA rep said that with everything that they are seeing he wishes he could be 25 again. So maybe the rumors of a pilot shortage just might be true.
    http://www.faa.gov/licenses_certific...rmen_download/

  5. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boondocker View Post
    One of the biggest problems with keeping the wages low in 2006-2007 was their ability to get quick access to pilots in as little as 9 months. ATP flight school and other similar Part 61/141 schools allowed pilots to go from zero to CMEL in under a year.

    Even if a 4-year degree allows you to lop of 800 hours from the 1500 hour ATP, you still need 5 years to go from the beginning of training to getting on with a regional with 700 hours.

    It is a lot easier to convince someone to invest 9 months of their life for a $20,000/year job than someone who needs to spend 4+ years of college taking classes and flying at the same time.

    It would be interesting to see how many pilots, hired at the regionals in 2006-2007, came from flight schools like ATP that trained airline pilots in a short period of time.
    That is a good point. When I got hired at XJT in 07 about 4 or 5 of the 16 in my class were from ATP, sitting there with min hours.

    While I was originally bummed that they would waive hours for accredited university credit, you make a good point that it won't be a "bang out a pilot zero to hero in 9 months" solution, much like the ridiculous AllATP flight school.

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by HappyPilot1 View Post
    She knows she will go straight to delta and will be able to bypass the regionals.
    Considering Delta has only hired about 200 female pilots (all very well qualified) in its history, I think you should have maybe said United Airlines in your comment.

  7. #37
    Only 406 commercial certs were given to American applicants in 2010. Lowest number in a very long time, I don't know the exact number of years but it has been trending downwards for the last 5 years or so.

  8. #38

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    flybeaver is offline
    Thanks for the info. Some interesting trends. I guess word about this profession is finally getting out to the public and people are thinking twice about paying for a education that brings back such a low return.

  9. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by just1pilot View Post
    Only 406 commercial certs were given to American applicants in 2010. Lowest number in a very long time, I don't know the exact number of years but it has been trending downwards for the last 5 years or so.
    Where did you get that data? The FAA has only published numbers through 2008 online.

    http://www.faa.gov/data_research/avi...atistics/2008/

    Take a look and in 2008 alone over 10,000 Commercial certificates were issued which was the highest of reported years since '02. CFI's average about 4,000+ a year. I'm calling shenanigans on the number of new Commercial pilots dropping to 400. There wasn't even that much of a dip after 9/11.

    With hiring being stopped for a few years now there could be a backup of 20,000-30,000 commercially rated pilots out there. Clearly there would be CFI's logging that time. How many retirements would it take to drain that pool. I'm not saying there won't be staffing issues when the retirements hit but I doubt their won't be available pilots. The term "pilot shortage" exists only in the mind of Kit Darby.

  10. #40
    well a freind of this girl i use to know had a bird tell her to talk to a hobo down the street and he came up with 406. Or i just randomlly pulled that number out of the air and wanted to see if people would run with it. But you werent biting were ya nova and dropped the shenanigans bomb on me. thx for ruining a perfectly good rumor. If you want to know all the real numbers just go to AOPA online. http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html there it is, 3452 commercial issued in 2010 representing a 47% decrease from 2009 and all the other numbers you would need. I will say this it def shows a downward trend.

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